Dallas Braden is Mr. Perfect

Oh, sure, Dallas Braden threw a perfect game. And yes, that means he joins the short list of only 19 pitchers that have ever accomplished that feat, and now he's established his place in baseball history, and now A-Rod can stick it, and blah blah blah. Here's what really matters: what is Braden's fantasy value?

And what are his thoughts on rap?

Braden is only owned in about 63% of leagues, but, chances are, someone in your league signed him at about 6:12 ET on Sunday. If you've got him, someone's probably offered you a trade; if you don't have him, maybe you're intrigued by the fiery lefty and you're thinking of making an offer for him. So what can you expect out of Braden for the rest of the season? Let's look back at some other perfect game pitchers and see what they did after reaching the ultimate single-game pitching achievement.

The last MLB perfect game was of course thrown by Mark Buehrle last season. Up to and including his perfect game, Buehrle was 11-3 with a 3.28 ERA and a WHIP just above 1.00. After the perfect game, Buehrle lost his next 3 starts. Over those 3 games, his ERA ballooned up to 8.35, and he struck out fewer batters (5) than he did in the perfect game (6!) Overall, Buehrle went 2-7 in the rest of his post-perfection 2009, with his ERA jumping up a run and a half. So that's not good.

The hangover lasted the rest of 2009.

Randy Johnson threw his perfect game in 2004, and his seems to be the anomaly. Unit was in the midst of an absolutely beast mode season and was just hitting his stride when he shut down the Braves. Johnson's numbers up to the perfect game: 3-4 with a 2.83 ERA and 2 2-hit shut-outs. Randy's perfect game actually started him on a 6 game winning streak, and he finished the season at 16-14 with a 2.60 ERA. So that's good.

David Cone started out his 1999 campaign on fire (earned runs allowed in first five starts: 1,1,0,1,0) and brought a 9-4 record and 2.86 ERA into his mid-season perfect game (although he did allow 6 earned in the start immediately prior.) After his perfecto, Coney started to melt a bit. He posted a 4.86 ERA and went only 2-5 for the remainder of the season. And we're back to not good.

"I won't throw another shutout for the rest of this century!"

David Wells came into his 1998 perfect game with a 4-1 but with a 5.23 ERA; after his perfect game, he went 13-3 and dropped his ERA almost two full runs. A great season for such a fat, fat man. I should apologize to Boomer, actually; we all know how easily he gets offended.


From all these statistics, it's hard to pull much besides "sometimes pitchers have bad seasons after they throw perfect games, and sometimes they have good ones." Not much help as far as your fantasy season goes. All it really proves is that Dallas Braden isn't guaranteed a Cy Young-type season simply because he threw a perfect game. (In fact, Sandy Koufax is the only pitcher to win a Cy Young Award for a season in which he threw a perfect game.)

Koufax is definitely in the leaflet.

We can, however, take a look at what perfect game pitchers did in their next start after the perfect game. Gamelogs are not available for anyone before Charlie Robertson.

Mark Buehrle-5ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 3 K, L
Randy Johnson- 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K, W
David Cone- 2 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 7 K, ND
David Wells- 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 5 K, W
Kenny Rogers- 4 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 2 K, L
Dennis Martinez- 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K, ND
Tom Browning-1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 4 K, W
Mike Witt- 4 ER, 10 H, 3 BB, 3 K, L
Len Barker- 3 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 10 K, L
Catfish Hunter-8 ER, 8 H, 5 BB, 4 K, 4 HR, W
Sandy Koufax-1 ER, 5 H, 3 K, L
Jim Bunning-4 ER, 11 H, 5 K, ND
Don Larsen-1.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 0 K, ND
Charlie Robertson-4 ER, 9 H, 3 BB, 3 K, L


So, out of these last 14 post-perfection starts, pitchers are 4-6 with 4 no-decisions and an average of 3.5 earned runs per game. Not too bad, not too good. It wouldn't surprise me if Braden went out Friday and laid an egg against the Angels; that would certainly surprise me less than Dallas laying a goose egg and becoming the first pitcher to follow a perfect game with another shut-out. He'll probably just go out and pitch another normal old Dallas Braden game; couple of strikeouts, couple of runs, and a chance at a win.

What I can be sure of, though, is that Braden is the ultimate sell-high candidate right now. If you get offered a blockbuster deal to give up Braden, I would go for it. I wouldn't overspend in trying to acquire him. Minus that perfect game, he's pretty much a slightly better 2010 Mark Buehrle. Is that somebody you'd give up tons of talent for? He's never going to be a hotter commodity than he is right now; if you must have him, wait a few weeks 'til the hype dies down; if you've got him, fleece a league-mate out of a couple of lesser-known talents and you'll be living large.

Just stay off of his mound.